{"id":18834,"date":"2026-05-03T21:30:59","date_gmt":"2026-05-03T21:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/finteqc.ca\/?post_type=finteqc_paper&#038;p=18834"},"modified":"2026-05-03T21:32:06","modified_gmt":"2026-05-03T21:32:06","slug":"15945","status":"publish","type":"finteqc_paper","link":"https:\/\/finteqc.ca\/index.php\/papers\/15945\/","title":{"rendered":"Regime-Dependent Volatility in Bitcoin: Evidence from Multiple Political Shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This paper examines whether Bitcoin exhibits systematic regime-dependent volatility patterns across multiple major political shocks. We apply a range-based Conditional Autoregressive Range (CARR) model combined with the Iterated Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm to daily BTC-USD data spanning January 2020 to May 2025 (1,977 observations), encompassing three major exogenous shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic onset, the FTX collapse, and Liberation Day tariffs. The ICSS algorithm detects 45 structural breaks endogenously, partitioning the sample into 46 distinct volatility regimes. All three political events align precisely with detected structural breaks. Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility exhibits a systematic two-phase response pattern: extreme turbulence with near-zero persistence followed by stabilization with substantially elevated persistence. This pattern strengthens chronologically, with post-shock persistence increasing from 0.758 (COVID-19) to 0.775 (Liberation Day), demonstrating progressive market maturation. The regime-specific CARR approach captures persistence heterogeneity more effectively than conventional return-based models, with unconditional expected volatility ranging from 0.010 to 0.808 across regimes. These findings reframe Bitcoin volatility as an adaptive process revealing systematic learning mechanisms rather than speculative chaos, with direct implications for portfolio optimization and regulatory policy under regime-dependent risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","class_list":["post-18834","finteqc_paper","type-finteqc_paper","status-publish","hentry"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/finteqc.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/finteqc_paper\/18834","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/finteqc.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/finteqc_paper"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/finteqc.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/finteqc_paper"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/finteqc.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18834"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}